“As goes January, so goes the rest of the year”. If this holds true, we may be looking at a dismal year for stock market returns. Which is just as well, the bull market in the past few years had left few opportunities in the market and many of us value investors were starved for ideas. Since we are net buyers of stock in the intermediate to long term, a period of lower prices is just what we have been waiting for.
Not that the VSG portfolio has suffered. On contrary, we had a tremendous start to 2014 and notched up a 3.22% return in January. This compares well to a 3.46% decline in the S&P 500 during this time (all returns are total returns).
January (YTD) Performance Breakdown
We currently hold 13 stocks in the portfolio, of which one was purchased in January.
Of the 12 stocks we held on Dec 31 and continue to hold today,
- 6 stocks had positive returns and 6 stocks had negative returns
- Highest positive return in January in any one stock was 38.94%, followed by another stock returning 22.34%. The remaining 4 positive stocks returned in single digits
- Worst performing stock in January in the portfolio returned –13.21%, closely followed by another returning –10.82%
The 13th stock was purchased in January (Jan 9th) and so far has returned 2.04% from the date of purchase
We currently hold about 18% of the portfolio in cash. The portfolio returns figures includes the cash drag, while the index does not suffer from it (or in case of this January, did not benefit from it).
VSG Premium Performance Since Inception
The VSG Premium portfolio has returned 218.35% cumulative (total returns, includes dividends) since July 23, 2009. S&P 500 during this time has returned 95.43% cumulative (total returns, dividends included). Neither of these numbers are adjusted for taxes.
If you had invested $10,000 in the VSG portfolio on Jul 23, 2009, it would be worth $31,835 today.
If you had invested another $10,000 in S&P500 on same date, it would be worth $19,543 today.
The table at the top of this page, next to the logo, gives a performance breakdown by year for the past few years. Detailed summary of 2013 performance is here and of 2012 performance is here. Trade history is also available for positions that have been closed.
Note: I am considering closing the Premium membership sometime this year to new membership. Exactly when this happens will depend on a few things but it is very likely that I am not going to wait for the 2000 member cap to be reached. What is certain is that as of Dec 31, 2014, and likely much earlier, I will stop taking new members. If you are considering joining, you should do it soon. This will help me focus all my time on stock picking and less on administration and marketing going forward.